CoinTalk

Crypto and AI Weigh on Wall Street: Why US IPOs Fell Behind the S&P 500 in 2025

Investors chasing fresh public listings in 2025 would have earned less than those who simply stayed invested in the S&P 500, as volatile crypto and uneven AI debuts dragged overall IPO performance lower.

A Year of High Expectations and Modest Returns

The US IPO market delivered a year of contrasts in 2025. While the long-anticipated reopening of public markets brought several high-profile listings, returns failed to keep pace with broader equities. Companies that went public during the year posted a weighted average gain of 13.9%, trailing the S&P 500’s roughly 16% advance. Crypto and artificial intelligence offerings, once seen as engines of growth, played a central role in that underperformance.

Crypto Listings Reignite, but Volatility Follows

Optimism surged early in the year as regulatory clarity and a more supportive political environment encouraged Wall Street to back crypto-related listings with significant capital. Major digital asset firms finally made their way to public markets, raising billions and generating headlines. Yet the excitement proved uneven, and in many cases short-lived, as sharp price swings and shifting sentiment weighed on post-IPO performance.

AI IPOs Face Reality Checks

Artificial intelligence was another focal point for investors, but several AI-linked companies struggled to meet expectations. Businesses tied to data infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions failed to sustain early momentum after their debuts, as investors reassessed lofty valuations and questioned the speed at which AI-driven revenues could translate into durable profits.

Circle’s Blockbuster Debut and Subsequent Slide

One of the year’s most talked-about crypto IPOs was stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group. Its $1.05 billion listing in June delivered a spectacular first day, with shares soaring after pricing at $31. The rally, however, faded as the broader crypto market cooled, and the stock retreated significantly from its post-IPO highs by year-end.

Gemini and Bullish Highlight the Risks

Not every crypto debut enjoyed even a brief surge. Gemini’s September IPO quickly turned into one of the weakest performers of the year, with shares tumbling sharply after an early rise. Bullish followed a similar path, delivering dramatic first-day gains in August only to slide back toward its IPO price months later, reinforcing concerns about sustainability in crypto valuations.

Big Deals Outperform Smaller Offerings

Performance gaps were also evident when comparing deal sizes. Larger IPOs proved far more resilient, while mid-sized offerings struggled to attract lasting investor demand. Listings valued above $1 billion significantly outperformed those in the $500 million to $1 billion range, reflecting a clear preference for scale and stability.

Winners and Losers Define a Selective Market

Medical equipment provider Medline emerged as one of the standout success stories, with its shares climbing strongly after its massive public debut. In contrast, gas exporter Venture Global became one of the year’s biggest disappointments, as its downsized IPO was followed by a steep decline in share price.

A Return to Fundamentals in Public Markets

Market observers agree that 2025 marked a decisive shift back to fundamentals. Investors became more selective, rewarding companies with clear strategies, strong operations, and credible growth paths, while punishing those reliant on hype or speculative narratives.

What 2025 Taught IPO Investors

The overarching lesson from 2025 is that the IPO market is open, but unforgiving. In a year shaped by crypto volatility and AI uncertainty, outperforming the S&P 500 required more than a compelling theme. Only companies with strong execution and long-term vision managed to earn lasting investor confidence.

Bitcoin Signals a New Breakout Phase as Institutional Momentum Builds

Bitcoin is once again at the center of global financial discussions, as prominent fund managers and market strategists suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency is preparing for another major upward move. After months of consolidation and volatility, growing alignment between US regulators, Wall Street institutions, and blockchain innovation is reshaping the long-term outlook for Bitcoin.

According to leading voices in traditional finance, the current market structure does not reflect weakness but rather a reset that could lay the foundation for a powerful rally extending through 2026.

Bill Miller IV:  Bitcoin Looks Ready to Move Again

Bill Miller IV, chief investment officer at Miller Value Partners, believes Bitcoin’s technical and structural indicators are lining up for a renewed breakout. In a recent interview with CNBC, Miller explained that Bitcoin’s price behavior shows signs of building strength rather than exhaustion.

He highlighted that Bitcoin has formed a higher base compared to earlier cycles, a key signal often associated with sustained bullish momentum. From his perspective, the market is transitioning from speculative trading toward long-term capital allocation, a shift that fundamentally changes how Bitcoin should be valued.

Miller also emphasized that short-term declines should not distract investors from the broader trend. Bitcoin’s volatility, he noted, has always been part of its identity, and historical data shows that the asset has never experienced two consecutive losing years.

Regulatory Signals Are Turning Into Tailwinds

One of the most significant changes supporting Bitcoin’s outlook is the evolving regulatory narrative in the United States. Statements from US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins acknowledging that capital markets are moving on-chain have been widely interpreted as a major shift in tone.

Rather than resisting blockchain innovation, regulators now appear more focused on integrating it into existing financial frameworks. This development reduces long-standing uncertainty and encourages institutional participation, which has historically been a major catalyst for large price movements in Bitcoin.

For many investors, regulatory clarity is not just a political issue but a signal that digital assets are becoming a permanent part of the global financial system.

Wall Street’s Deepening Commitment to Blockchain

Beyond regulation, Wall Street’s actions speak louder than words. Financial giants such as JPMorgan and other major institutions continue to build blockchain-based systems for payments, settlements, and tokenized assets.

This growing infrastructure suggests that Bitcoin and blockchain technology are no longer experimental tools but foundational components of future finance. As traditional financial firms allocate resources, talent, and capital to on-chain solutions, Bitcoin benefits from increased legitimacy and long-term demand.

According to Miller, this convergence of technology and finance represents a  whole new ballgame  compared to previous crypto cycles driven primarily by retail speculation.

Why the Recent Pullback Isn’t a Red Flag

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $93,700, roughly 25% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October. While this decline may appear significant on the surface, many analysts argue it is a healthy correction rather than a sign of structural weakness.

Zooming out, Bitcoin remains up year-to-date and continues to outperform most traditional assets over longer timeframes. Market observers point out that corrections often reset excessive leverage, making future rallies more sustainable and less fragile.

Tom Lee, chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital, described the late-2025 market shock as a necessary reset that cleared unhealthy leverage from the system, allowing Bitcoin to enter 2026 in a stronger position.

Multiple Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Price in 2026

The Insatiable Appetite: How the AI Computing Arms Race Is Redefining Industries and Challenging Crypto’s Foundation

The world is experiencing a computational revolution, one that is reshaping industries, economies, and the very fabric of technological progress. At the epicenter of this seismic shift stands Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, whose recent address in Las Vegas served not merely as a corporate update but as a proclamation of a new era. His message was unequivocal: the demand for computing resources is not just increasing; it is skyrocketing, driven by an intense race to conquer the next frontier of artificial intelligence.

This surge is creating a gravitational pull so strong that it threatens to divert the very lifeblood of computational power from one disruptive sector to another, placing the future of cryptocurrency mining in a precarious and fascinating position.

The Engine of the AI Juggernaut: Why Computation Is the New Battleground

Huang’s analysis cuts to the core of modern AI’s trajectory. The evolution of large language models and generative AI is not linear; it is exponential. AI models are growing in complexity and capability by an order of magnitude—a factor of ten—every single year. This hyper-evolution transforms every ambition in the field into what Huang terms a computing problem.

The faster you compute, the sooner you can get to the next level of the next frontier, he asserted. This simple statement encapsulates the high-stakes dynamic of the industry. It is a race where victory belongs not only to those with the best algorithms but to those who can execute them fastest. Research and development timelines are now directly tied to processing throughput. Companies, research institutions, and nations are engaged in a silent, frantic sprint, investing billions to secure the hardware that can deliver these exponential leaps.

This competition fuels a self-perpetuating cycle: more advanced AI demands more powerful chips, whose development in turn enables even more advanced AI. Nvidia, with its industry-dominant Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), has become the primary arms dealer in this war, with its products becoming as coveted as any rare earth mineral.

The Ripple Becomes a Wave: Implications for the Global Compute Ecosystem

This insatiable demand creates a fundamental supply chain and allocation crisis for computational power. Data centers worldwide are being retrofitted and expanded at a breakneck pace, not for cloud storage or web hosting, but explicitly as  AI factories.  The electrical grid, chip fabrication capacity, and even advanced cooling solutions are all being stress-tested by this surge.

The announcement of Nvidia’s next-generation platform, Rubin Vera, already in full production and promising a fivefold increase in AI performance, exemplifies this acceleration. Each new generation doesn’t just satisfy demand; it stimulates new, previously unthinkable applications, thereby seeding the demand for the generation to follow. This market dynamic prioritizes buyers who can commit to massive, long-term purchases and who operate at the cutting edge of research and commercial deployment—a profile that perfectly fits hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, and leading AI startups.

The Crypto Crossroads: An Existential Calculus for Miners

Here lies the profound intersection with the cryptocurrency world. For years, the proof-of-work consensus mechanism, particularly for Bitcoin, has relied on a global network of miners employing vast arrays of high-performance GPUs and specialized ASICs to solve cryptographic puzzles. Mining profitability has always been a delicate balance between Bitcoin’s price, network difficulty, and operational costs—primarily electricity and hardware.

The AI revolution violently disrupts this equation from two angles:

1- Hardware Competition and Opportunity Cost: The very GPUs that are the workhorses of AI training are also (or were) the tools of the crypto miner. As AI firms outbid everyone else for this silicon, the acquisition cost and, critically, the opportunity cost of using hardware for mining skyrocket. A mining rig represents frozen capital; its value is what it can earn. If that same hardware could be leased to an AI lab for significantly greater, more stable revenue, the economic incentive to pivot becomes overwhelming.

2- Infrastructure Repurposing: Bitcoin miners possess a coveted asset beyond hardware: robust, scalable, and often power-subscribed industrial infrastructure. Their facilities are designed for 24/7 operation, massive electricity draw, and advanced cooling—precisely what an AI data center requires. This makes miners not just hardware owners, but potential landlords and service providers for the AI economy.

The Great Diversification: From Hash Rate to AI Compute

This is not a theoretical future scenario; it is the present reality. Over the past 24 months, a clear trend has emerged. Publicly-traded Bitcoin mining companies have increasingly announced strategic pivots into AI and high-performance computing (HPC). Some have allocated a percentage of their power capacity to AI data centers; others have undergone complete rebranding and business model shifts.

They are leveraging their core competencies—securing cheap energy, managing industrial-scale technical operations, and navigating complex regulatory environments—to build a new revenue pillar. This diversification is a pragmatic hedge against Bitcoin’s volatility and its ever-increasing mining difficulty. In essence, they are transforming from single-commodity producers (Bitcoin) into diversified computational utilities.

The Future Landscape: A Convergence or a Divergence?

Looking ahead, the tension between AI’s computational demands and crypto’s needs will likely define a new technological landscape. Several potential outcomes emerge:

1- A Permanent Divergence: Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, may see their mining ecosystem become increasingly specialized and niche, reliant on ASICs that have no use in AI, potentially leading to greater centralization among those who can afford this dedicated path.

2- A Symbiotic Convergence: The mining and AI industries may find a stable equilibrium. Miners could operate hybrid facilities, dynamically allocating resources between mining and AI compute based on real-time market profitability, becoming agile brokers of computational power.

3- A Protocol Evolution: The pressure may accelerate the adoption of less energy-intensive consensus mechanisms (like proof-of-stake) across the broader crypto landscape, fundamentally reducing its demand for raw computational throughput and mitigating this conflict.

Jensen Huang’s proclamation from Las Vegas was more than a corporate milestone; it was a diagnosis of a paradigm shift. We are moving into an age where computing power is the fundamental scarce resource upon which economic and technological supremacy is built. The AI gold rush is underway, and it is redrawing the map. For the cryptocurrency mining industry, this is not merely a challenge—it is an inflection point.

The choices made now, to dig in or to diversify, to compete or to collaborate, will determine whether they become casualties of this compute war or evolve into the indispensable infrastructure providers of the intelligence age. The race is not just for the next AI breakthrough; it is for the very watts and transistors that will power our collective future.

The Green Surge Storm: Digital Markets Ignite Wall Street in an Extraordinary Financial Spectacle

It was no ordinary day in the financial markets. This past Monday presented an extraordinary spectacle, akin to a synchronized financial awakening, where the latent energy of the digital asset universe erupted, sending powerful shockwaves through the corridors of traditional Wall Street. The numbers told a story not just of recovery, but of a vigorous, broad-based resurgence that placed crypto-centric equities at the very forefront of market leadership.

The catalyst was unmistakable: a vibrant and sustained rally in the foundational cryptocurrency market. After a period of consolidation often associated with the year-end lull, major digital currencies broke free from their chains, with Bitcoin and Ethereum spearheading the charge to reclaim heights unseen for weeks. This wasn't a minor correction; it was a clear signal of returning conviction.

The Vanguard of the Rally: Stocks Soaring on Digital Wings

The translation from crypto strength to equity performance was immediate and dramatic. A constellation of companies, each a critical node in the digital asset infrastructure, experienced gravitational lifts that defied typical market movements.

Leading this celestial ascent was Bakkt (BKKT), whose near 31.5% intraday surge—and further after-hours climb—was nothing short of meteoric. It served as a powerful testament to the reignited institutional narrative. Close behind, Kindly MD (NAKA), with its focused Bitcoin treasury strategy, solidified its role as a pure-play beneficiary of crypto asset appreciation, vaulting over 24% and capturing the imagination of investors seeking direct exposure.

BREAKING A NEW FRONTIER: Grayscale Issues Landmark Staking Payout to Ethereum ETF Investors, Ushering in a New Era of Yield-Generating Digital Asset Funds

In times of economic uncertainty, investors scramble for safety. For decades, the playbook was simple: if inflation rises, buy gold or real estate. But in the last few years, a new contender has entered the arena: Cryptocurrency.

The narrative of Bitcoin as "Digital Gold" suggests that it should act as a perfect shield against the devaluation of fiat currency. But does the reality match the theory? To build a resilient portfolio, you need to understand the mechanics of how crypto reacts to global economic shifts.

The Argument for "Hard Money"

The primary reason investors view cryptocurrency as a hedge is scarcity.

Fiat currencies (like the US Dollar or Euro) are inflationary by design. Central banks can print an infinite amount of money, which dilutes the purchasing power of every dollar you hold. Bitcoin, by contrast, is mathematically capped. There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin.

This fixed supply creates a deflationary pressure. In theory, as the supply of fiat money expands, the value of scarce assets should rise against it. This is why many investors rush to Quick Buy Bitcoin when they see inflation numbers spiking—they are looking for a store of value that a government cannot dilute.

Correlation: Safe Haven or Risk Asset?

While the theory is sound, the market behavior is complex. Data from recent years shows that crypto often behaves like a "risk-on" asset (like tech stocks) rather than a pure "safe haven" (like Gold).

• The Risk-On Phase: When interest rates are low and the economy is booming, crypto tends to skyrocket.
• The Liquidity Crunch: When central banks raise rates to fight inflation, liquidity dries up, and speculative assets—including crypto—often take a hit.

However, we are seeing signs of "de-coupling." During specific banking crises, Bitcoin has rallied while regional banks collapsed. This suggests that while crypto is volatile, it serves as an insurance policy against the failure of the centralized banking system.

Stablecoins as a Hedge

Not all crypto is volatile. For investors in developing nations with hyperinflation (where the local currency loses 50% of its value in a year), Stablecoins are the ultimate hedge.

Who is better at predicting the future: a highly paid TV pundit or a group of thousands of people betting their own money? History suggests the latter. This concept is known as the "Wisdom of the Crowd," and it is the engine behind one of crypto's fastest-growing sectors: Decentralized Prediction Markets.

Platforms like Polymarket have exploded in popularity, allowing users to trade on the outcome of real-world events—from US Presidential elections to interest rate hikes and even pop culture phenomena. But how do these markets actually work, and why are they built on blockchain?

Buying Shares in an Outcome

A prediction market operates like a stock market, but instead of buying shares in a company, you buy shares in an outcome.

Let's say the question is: "Will Bitcoin hit $150k in 2026?"

• There are two shares: YES and NO.
• The price of each share reflects the probability. If "YES" costs $0.60, the market believes there is a 60% chance it will happen.
• The Payout: When the event resolves, the winning share pays out $1.00, and the losing share goes to $0.00.

If you bought the "YES" share at $0.60 and won, you make a $0.40 profit per share. This binary structure allows traders to profit from their knowledge and research, similar to trading assets on a Spot market.

Why Put It on the Blockchain?

Traditional betting sites have existed for years. So why do we need a crypto version? The answer lies in trust and limits.

1. No Limits: Centralized bookmakers often ban winners. If you are too good at predicting, they limit your bet size. Decentralized markets are permissionless; as long as there is liquidity, you can bet as much as you want.
2. No Custody Risk: In a decentralized market, you don't deposit funds to a bookie. You interact with a smart contract. The funds are held in escrow by code, not a shady offshore company.
3. Global Access: Anyone with an internet connection and a wallet can participate. You can Register and start trading without needing to jump through geographic hoops.

The Oracle Problem: Who Decides the Truth?

The trickiest part of a decentralized bet is agreeing on the result. If we bet on the Super Bowl, who tells the blockchain who won?

This is solved by Oracles (like UMA or Kleros). These are decentralized dispute resolution systems. Token holders voted on the outcome based on verifiable public data. If an oracle tries to lie, they are economically punished (slashed), and the decision is disputed. This ensures that the resolution is based on facts, not the whim of a centralized admin.

More Than Just Gambling

While it feels like betting, prediction markets serve a vital economic function: Hedging.

Imagine your business relies on oil prices staying low. You can go to a prediction market and buy "YES" shares on "Will Oil exceed $100?" If oil prices spike, your business costs go up, but your prediction market shares pay out a profit, offsetting the loss. It turns gambling into insurance.

Conclusion

Decentralized prediction markets are arguably the most accurate source of truth on the internet. By forcing participants to put "skin in the game," they filter out the noise and reveal what the world actually thinks will happen.

As these markets mature, the data they produce becomes invaluable for all traders. By analyzing prediction market sentiment, you can make smarter decisions when you trade major assets on BYDFi.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is using a prediction market legally considered gambling?
A: Regulations vary by country. In some regions, it is classified as investing or derivatives trading; in others, it falls under gambling laws. Always check your local jurisdiction.

Q: Can prediction markets be manipulated?
A: It is possible for a "whale" to buy up shares to skew the odds temporarily, but this creates a massive profit opportunity for other traders to bet against them, usually correcting the price quickly.

Q: What cryptocurrencies do I need to participate?
A: Most major prediction markets use stablecoins (like USDC) for betting to ensure that the payout value is stable and predictable.

Every crypto trader has experienced this moment: You see Bitcoin trading at $95,000. You hit the "Buy" button. But when you check your transaction history, you realize you actually bought it at $95,200.

That gap—the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed—is called Slippage.

While a small percentage difference might seem negligible on a $100 trade, slippage can eat away significant profits on larger orders or during periods of high volatility. Understanding why it happens and how to prevent it is the first step to trading like a professional.

Why Does Slippage Happen?

Slippage isn't a fee charged by the exchange. It is a market phenomenon caused by the mechanics of supply and demand. It generally occurs due to two main factors:

1. High Volatility
Crypto markets move fast. In the split second between when you confirm a market order and when the matching engine executes it, the price might have jumped. If the market is pumping aggressively, your buy order might get filled at the top of the candle rather than where you clicked.

If you have ever tried to Register on a major cryptocurrency exchange, you have likely encountered a step that feels invasive: the request to upload a photo of your driver’s license or passport.

This process is known as KYC (Know Your Customer).

For privacy-focused crypto natives, KYC can feel like a betrayal of the decentralized ethos. However, for the industry to mature and integrate with the global banking system, it is an absolute necessity. Understanding why KYC exists—and how it actually protects you—is essential for any serious trader.

The Regulatory Shield: AML and CFT

KYC isn't just an arbitrary rule made up by exchanges to annoy users. It is a legal requirement mandated by global financial regulators to combat two specific crimes:

1. Anti-Money Laundering (AML): Preventing criminals from turning "dirty" money (from drugs or theft) into "clean" crypto assets.
2. Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT): Ensuring funds aren't flowing to sanctioned terrorist organizations.

If an exchange allows users to move millions of dollars anonymously, it becomes a haven for illicit activity. By enforcing KYC, exchanges like BYDFi ensure they remain compliant with international laws, which keeps the platform open and operational for legitimate users.

How the Process Works

When you sign up to perform a Quick Buy of Bitcoin with a credit card, you will typically go through three stages of verification:

1. Customer Identification Program (CIP): This is the basic data collection—your full name, date of birth, and address.
2. Customer Due Diligence (CDD): This is the verification stage. You upload a government-issued ID (Passport or Driver's License) and often perform a "liveness check" (scanning your face with your phone camera) to prove you are the person on the ID.
3. Ongoing Monitoring: Exchanges continuously monitor transaction patterns. If a user suddenly deposits $10 million from a suspicious wallet mixer, it triggers a review.

The Benefits for the User

While KYC feels like a hurdle, it offers distinct advantages for the user:

• Higher Limits: Unverified accounts are often restricted to small withdrawals. Completing KYC unlocks the ability to trade large volumes on the Spot market and withdraw higher daily amounts.
• Account Recovery: If you lose your password and your 2FA device, an anonymous account is often lost forever. With a KYC-verified account, you can prove your identity to customer support and recover your funds.
• Banking Integration: You cannot connect a traditional bank account to an anonymous crypto wallet. KYC builds the trust bridge that allows fiat currency to flow in and out of the exchange.

H2: KYC vs. Decentralization

There is a valid tension between KYC and the principles of crypto.

• CEX (Centralized Exchanges): These platforms hold custody of your funds and connect to banks. They must require KYC to operate legally.
• DEX (Decentralized Exchanges): Platforms like Uniswap usually do not require KYC because they are just code running on a blockchain. However, they lack the customer support, fiat on-ramps, and advanced tools found on centralized platforms.

Conclusion

KYC is the "admission ticket" to the professional crypto economy. It legitimizes the industry, deters criminals, and allows regular investors to connect their bank accounts to the blockchain safely. While it takes a few minutes to complete, the security and higher limits it unlocks are worth the effort.

Ready to access the full features of a professional exchange?

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is my personal data safe when I submit KYC?
A: Reputable exchanges use enterprise-grade encryption to store user data. It is crucial to only submit KYC documents to trusted, established platforms and never to random websites.

Q: Can I trade crypto without KYC?
A: You can trade on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), but you will face difficulties buying crypto with fiat currency (USD/EUR) or recovering your account if you lose access.

Q: How long does KYC verification take?
A: On modern exchanges, the process is automated. It typically takes anywhere from 5 minutes to 24 hours, depending on the clarity of the photos and the backlog of the compliance team.