Related Questions

1- Institutional Tsunami: This isn't just retail investors anymore. We have Spot Bitcoin ETFs from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, effectively opening the floodgates for trillions of dollars of traditional finance (TradFi) capital.

2- Regulatory Clarity (Slowly Emerging): While still a patchwork, frameworks are developing, giving larger institutions the confidence to enter the space.

3- Real-World Utility: Blockchain is no longer just "digital gold." It's DeFi, NFTs, Real-World Assets (RWA), and decentralized social media, creating tangible value.

This confluence of factors suggests we are in a super-cycle, not just a simple bull market. The dips are not the end; they are the reload.

When Will the Bull Run Start? The Key Triggers to Watch

So, if we're in a pause, when will the bull run start its next leg up? Stop looking for a crystal ball and start watching these concrete indicators.

1. The Bitcoin Halving Ripple Effect

You can't talk about a BTC bull run without the Halving. This pre-programmed event, which last occurred in April 2024, cuts the reward for Bitcoin miners in half. In simple terms, the supply of new Bitcoin being issued drops dramatically. Basic economics tells us what happens when demand stays the same or increases, but supply shrinks.

Historically, the most explosive price action happens 6 to 12 months AFTER the Halving. We are currently in this fertile ground. The market is still digesting this supply shock.

2. The God Candle  Predictor: Understanding Samson Mow's $1 Million BTC Thesis

If you follow crypto Twitter, you’ve seen the bold claims from Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a renowned Bitcoin maximalist. He famously predicts a "God Candle" that could send Bitcoin to $1 million almost overnight.

This isn't just hype. His logic is rooted in market mechanics:

1- Extreme Supply Shock: The Halving, combined with ETF-driven demand, is creating an unprecedented supply squeeze.

2- Market Illiquidity: There simply isn't enough Bitcoin available for sale at current prices to satisfy the incoming demand from ETFs and nation-states.

3- Price Discovery: When buy orders massively overwhelm sell orders, the price can gap up violently to find new sellers.

While $1 million may sound insane, the underlying principle is sound: a violent, liquidity-driven surge is a real possibility in this cycle.

3. The Macroeconomic Picture: Interest Rates and Liquidity

Crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum. The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy on interest rates is a massive driver. When the Fed signals rate cuts and injects liquidity into the economy, that "cheap money" often finds its way into risk-on assets like cryptocurrency. Keep one eye on the Fed; their decisions are a powerful tailwind or headwind for the entire market.

Your Game Plan: How to Position Yourself for the Next Bull Run Crypto

Knowing a storm is coming is useless if you don't batten down the hatches. Here’s your strategic playbook.

Step 1: Secure Your Core Position (The "Set It and Forget It" Stack)

Your foundation should be Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). These are your blue chips. They will likely see the most institutional inflow and are the "safest" bets in a volatile space. Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to build your position through the dips. This isn't for trading; this is your long-term wealth storage.

Step 2: Diversify Strategically into High-Potential Altcoins

Once your core is solid, you can explore the high-risk, high-reward world of altcoins. The next bull run crypto will be led by projects with strong fundamentals.

Focus on sectors poised for growth:

1- DeFi 2.0: Projects solving scalability and user experience.

2- Real-World Assets (RWA): Tokenizing everything from treasury bonds to real estate.

3- AI and Blockchain Convergence: Projects using decentralized networks for AI computation and data.

4- Layer 2 Scaling Solutions: Arbitrum, Optimism, etc., which are essential for Ethereum's growth.

A word of caution: The altcoin market is where you can make 100x, but it's also where you can lose 100%. Always do your own research (DYOR).

Step 3: Master Your Psychology - This is Your Biggest Edge

The market is designed to trigger your emotions. Fear will make you sell at the bottom. Greed will make you FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in at the top.

1- Have a Plan and Stick to It: Decide your entry, exit, and profit-taking strategies before you’re in an emotional situation.

2- Ignore the Noise: Turn off the Twitter notifications and YouTube hype videos during a crash. Zoom out and look at the long-term chart.

3- Take Profits Along the Way: No one went broke taking a profit. Selling a portion of your holdings on the way up secures gains and reduces risk.

Conclusion: The Train is Leaving the Station

So, is the crypto bull run over? The data, the cycles, and the on-chain metrics scream a resounding NO. We are in a temporary consolidation phase—a catch-your-breath moment before the next, potentially life-changing, upward move.

The next bull run crypto wave will separate the prepared from the panicked. By understanding the catalysts like the Halving, heeding the analysis of experts like Samson Mow, and executing a disciplined investment strategy, you position yourself not just to participate, but to prosper.

While you can no longer buy BTC for $500, the risk profile has also dropped dramatically. You are no longer betting on if it will survive; you are betting on how big it will grow. Register at BYDFi today to invest in the mature, secure, and regulated era of digital assets.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Was Bitcoin legal in 2016?
A: It was in a gray area. Most countries had no laws regarding it, meaning it wasn't explicitly illegal, but it wasn't protected either.

Q: What was the Bitcoin Halving status in 2016?
A: The second Halving occurred in July 2016, dropping the block reward to 12.5 BTC. In 2026, we are past the fourth halving, with rewards now a fraction of that amount.

Q: Is it too late to invest in 2026?
A: Historically, no. While the 1000x gains of the early days are gone, Bitcoin's role as a hedge against global debt suggests it still has significant upside compared to fiat currency.

Financial markets are witnessing a subtle yet powerful shift. While gold dominates headlines with record-breaking price levels, Bitcoin’s relative strength against the precious metal has weakened dramatically. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a long-standing macro indicator watched closely by institutional investors, has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023. On the surface, this appears to signal Bitcoin’s fading appeal. Beneath the surface, however, analysts argue it may represent something far more significant.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reflects how many ounces of gold are required to purchase one Bitcoin. As of this week, that figure slipped to around 18.5 ounces, driven largely by gold’s explosive rally rather than a collapse in Bitcoin itself. Gold surged toward the $4,900 level, while Bitcoin struggled to sustain momentum above $90,000, creating a widening valuation gap that has not gone unnoticed.

Gold’s Rally Is More Than Just a Safe-Haven Trade

Gold’s strength is not merely a reaction to short-term uncertainty. According to long-term historical data, gold bull markets over the past century have delivered average gains exceeding 150%. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has highlighted that if history follows a familiar path, gold’s current rally may still be in its early stages. Under such conditions, prices could potentially rise toward the $10,000–$12,000 range over the coming decade.

This surge reflects a deeper shift in global capital allocation. Investors are increasingly questioning the sustainability of sovereign debt, the reliability of long-duration bonds, and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. As confidence in traditional financial instruments erodes, capital naturally seeks refuge in assets perceived as scarce, tangible, and politically neutral. Gold, with thousands of years of monetary history, has once again become the first destination for that flow.

Bitcoin Left Behind — Temporarily

Bitcoin’s relative underperformance does not necessarily imply weakness in its fundamentals. Instead, it highlights Bitcoin’s position on the risk spectrum. During periods of elevated uncertainty, investors tend to favor assets with lower volatility and established credibility. Gold fits that profile perfectly. Bitcoin, despite its growing institutional adoption, is still viewed as a higher-risk asset — one that investors prefer to approach later in the cycle rather than at its onset.

This dynamic has played out repeatedly over the past decade. Gold often leads during the early phases of macro stress, while Bitcoin lags. Once risk appetite stabilizes and confidence begins to return, Bitcoin historically transitions from underperformer to outperformer, often at a pace that far exceeds traditional assets.

Technical Signals Hint at Trend Exhaustion

From a technical perspective, some analysts believe the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is approaching a critical inflection point. Crypto analyst Decode has applied Elliott Wave theory to the BTC/gold pair, suggesting that the ratio may be completing the final phase of a corrective structure. In Elliott Wave terms, this fifth-wave movement often signals exhaustion rather than continuation.

Such setups have historically coincided with shifts in market psychology. When sentiment reaches extreme pessimism, selling pressure tends to diminish, even if prices remain subdued. This environment often creates the conditions for sharp reversals, particularly in assets with asymmetric upside potential like Bitcoin.

Relative Value Matters More Than Headlines

Institutional investors rarely focus on price alone. Instead, they assess relative value across asset classes. André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, recently described Bitcoin’s valuation versus gold as “exceptionally discounted” on a historical basis. According to Dragosch, similar conditions have appeared only a handful of times over the past decade, and each instance eventually preceded significant capital rotations back into Bitcoin.

This discount does not imply that Bitcoin is cheap in absolute terms, but rather that it is undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for liquidity, scarcity, and long-term monetary dynamics. For macro-focused investors, these moments are often more important than short-term price action.

A Structural Shift in the Global Monetary System

Beyond charts and ratios lies a broader transformation. Influential investors such as Ray Dalio have repeatedly warned that the global financial system is undergoing a structural reset. Rising debt burdens, geopolitical fragmentation, and declining trust in traditional reserve assets are forcing countries and institutions to rethink how they store value.

In this environment, gold has reasserted itself as the primary non-sovereign reserve asset. However, Bitcoin shares many of the same characteristics — fixed supply, neutrality, and resistance to debasement — while adding digital portability and transparency. The key difference lies in perception and maturity. Gold benefits first because it is familiar. Bitcoin benefits later because it is disruptive.

Capital Rotations Tend to Be Sequential

According to Dragosch, capital rarely moves into multiple alternative assets simultaneously. Instead, it flows in stages. Gold typically absorbs the initial wave of defensive capital. Once confidence builds and investors seek higher returns, attention shifts toward assets with greater upside potential. Bitcoin has historically been the primary beneficiary of this second phase.

This sequential rotation helps explain why gold’s strength should not necessarily be viewed as a headwind for Bitcoin. On the contrary, gold’s rally may be laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next expansion by validating the broader thesis of hard assets and monetary scarcity.

Bitcoin’s Asymmetric Setup: Rare but Powerful

What makes the current setup particularly compelling is the asymmetry involved. Downside risks for Bitcoin are increasingly constrained by institutional adoption, ETF infrastructure, and expanding global liquidity. At the same time, upside potential remains significant if capital flows rotate even modestly away from gold and into digital assets.

Historically, periods where Bitcoin significantly underperformed gold were followed by aggressive catch-up rallies. These moves often occurred rapidly, leaving little opportunity for late entrants to position themselves.

Long-Term Perspective Over Short-Term Noise

Short-term price fluctuations can obscure long-term trends. While Bitcoin’s recent struggle to hold above $90,000 may concern traders, long-term investors are focused on macro positioning rather than daily volatility. From that vantage point, Bitcoin’s discounted relative value may represent opportunity rather than risk.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reaching multi-year lows is not a common event. When it happens, it often reflects peak pessimism — a condition that has historically favored patient investors willing to look beyond immediate headlines.

Conclusion: A Quiet Setup Before the Next Move?

The collapse in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has sparked debate, skepticism, and caution. Yet beneath the surface, the data suggests a familiar pattern may be unfolding. Gold leads, Bitcoin lags, sentiment cools — and then capital rotates.

If historical behavior and macro dynamics repeat, Bitcoin’s current underperformance may prove temporary. Rather than signaling decline, the present divergence could mark the early stages of Bitcoin’s next catch-up cycle, one shaped by global monetary transformation and the search for scarce, non-sovereign assets.

For investors who understand cycles, this may not be a moment of fear — but one of quiet preparation.

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You do not need to wait for a government mandate to start your reserve. Register at BYDFi today to buy Bitcoin on the Spot market and secure your own financial future.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Can banks seize my Bitcoin?
A: If you hold your assets in a custodial bank they technically can. This is why many users prefer self-custody or non-custodial solutions to maintain total control.

Q: Why does Saylor dislike spending Bitcoin?
A: He views Bitcoin as property (like a building) rather than currency. You do not spend your house to buy coffee; you hold it for 100 years.

Q: What happens if the US creates a Bitcoin reserve?
A: It would likely trigger a massive global supply shock known as "hyper-bitcoinization" as other nations rush to buy before the supply runs out.

Bitcoin’s price action surprised traders this week after a sharp pullback pushed BTC below the $88,000 level, filling a long-watched CME futures gap from the start of the year. While a modest rebound followed the dip, market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh technical signals against growing macroeconomic pressure.

The move marked a critical moment for Bitcoin, erasing a significant portion of its January gains and raising fresh questions about whether the market is preparing for another leg down or simply resetting before a renewed rally.

A Key Technical Level Is Reached

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $87,800 before bouncing back toward the $90,000 zone. This decline represented the lowest BTC price since early January and confirmed the closure of a CME futures gap created at the annual market open.

CME gaps are closely watched by traders because Bitcoin often revisits these levels. Historically, the market tends to  fill  such gaps within a short timeframe, sometimes acting like a magnet for price action. This week’s dip validated that behavior once again, but the reaction afterward failed to inspire broad confidence.

Despite a small daily recovery of just over 1%, Bitcoin remains more than $10,000 below its recent monthly highs, signaling weakened short-term momentum.

Traders Divided After the Gap Fill

With the CME gap now filled, attention has shifted to remaining gaps sitting above the current spot price. Some traders view this as a constructive development, believing that clearing downside inefficiencies could allow Bitcoin to resume its upward trend.

Popular trader CW suggested that the correction was a necessary step for market stability, arguing that a rapid upside move could follow now that the gap is closed. From this perspective, the pullback may serve as a foundation rather than a breakdown.

However, not all analysts share this optimism. Trader Jelle expressed growing concern, pointing to technical weakness on the daily chart. After a brief breakout, Bitcoin printed a higher high followed almost immediately by a lower low, a pattern often associated with trend exhaustion.

With BTC now retesting a downward-sloping trendline, Jelle noted that the overall structure no longer appears strong, increasing the risk of further downside if buyers fail to defend current levels.

Bitcoin Behaves Like a High-Risk Asset

Beyond technical charts, broader macroeconomic forces continue to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. Ahead of the Wall Street open, analysts emphasized that crypto markets remain highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical developments, and cross-market volatility.

In its latest Asia Color update, trading firm QCP Capital described Bitcoin as trading more like a high-beta risk asset than a digital safe haven. According to the firm, BTC is reacting sharply to shifts in global conditions rather than moving with clear directional conviction.

Until clearer policy signals emerge, especially around monetary tightening and global stability, Bitcoin is expected to remain reactive, with price swings driven by external catalysts rather than organic momentum.

Capital Preservation Takes Priority

Investor behavior is also shifting. Rather than aggressively chasing upside, many market participants appear focused on protecting capital. This defensive posture suggests uncertainty about whether current volatility is merely temporary or the early stage of a deeper correction.

QCP Capital highlighted that the market is closely monitoring whether policy errors or macro shocks could turn recent tremors into a more systemic event. In such an environment, risk appetite tends to fade quickly, limiting the strength of any rebound.

Gold Shines as Bitcoin Stumbles

While Bitcoin struggles to regain lost ground, traditional safe-haven assets are telling a different story. Gold continues to outperform, reaching a new all-time high near $4,888 per ounce. The contrast underscores the current market dynamic, where investors are rotating toward stability amid uncertainty.

This divergence has fueled debate over Bitcoin’s role as  digital gold,  at least in the short term. While long-term believers remain confident, recent price action shows that BTC is still vulnerable to macro stress, especially when risk aversion dominates global markets.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

With the CME gap now behind it, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. A strong defense above current levels could reignite bullish momentum and shift attention back toward upside targets. Failure to hold support, however, may invite a deeper retracement as traders test lower liquidity zones.

For now, the market remains cautious, balancing technical cleanup with macro risk. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim its January highs or continues to lag behind assets like gold will likely depend on broader economic signals in the days ahead.

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